Friday, June 1, 2018

Grateful to Be Broke

This 2-pound box for sale at Harry & David

It’s coming up on cherry season.  There will be cherries in the Kroger for about a month and a half.  During this period of time, there will be 1-3 weeks when Rainier cherries are available.  They’re those weird-looking yellow ones.  To me, they are like the pearls in oysters: oysters are great, but pearls are fantastic.  Maybe that’s not the right analogy; think of Rainier cherries as that little mini-segment in every navel orange.

A thread by @ErynnBrook got retweeted onto my feed and got my attention.  It was a beautiful thread with a lot of accurate information on the difference between being poor and being “broke.”  



You can see the level of reaction (Retweets/Likes).  Among other things, the whole thread was translated into Arabic.  Amazing what can happen these days.

In reality, only people who have been truly poor can make the distinction fully.  There were a couple of outliers, but there is one place that most everyone seems to remember when they first realized they weren’t poor anymore: the grocery store.

Oddly, that was the place where I realized how poor I really was.

At my rock bottom, I was in a grocery store.  It was Rainier cherry season/week.  My mouth actually watered thinking about how good they would…or could taste.  I needed other food, though.  That "ate up" the cash I had on hand.  I was unsure where the next funding would come from.  This was really it.

Somehow, this seemed important to me: I should at least taste what things used to be like.  If I remember correctly, I had 78 cents left. (I probably don't remember that amount correctly.) Weighing carefully, I determined that I had enough money for seven (7) cherries.  That was a long walk from the checkout to my dad’s 1990 Silverado, my only transportation and occasional housing.  It was my biggest fear realized: I was done—but not dead.  This is poor.  Confusion.  Hopelessness.  Survival.  Non-survival.  You have no idea how you will eat in 3 days, no idea if you have a place to sleep tonight with a roof, no idea how you get out of this situation, no idea if it will ever happen…

…no idea if it should happen.

One thing that got me through was a story told by the Buddha.  A guy is about to die, but he takes time to enjoy a strawberry first.  Thus, I should only focus on this moment.  Fear of the future was futile; I stood as living proof of that.  Predicting your demise doesn’t make you survive.  It just makes everything before your demise worse.  For that one moment, I had enough food for 3 days and seven cherries.  Those were the best-tasting cherries I had ever eaten.  Those will remain the best-tasting cherries I ever have.
----------------------
(Gotta Fast Forward—I can’t watch this next part right now.)
----------------------
In October of 2016, I received my first paycheck.  When I went to the Kroger store, I realized that I could make decisions based on what I want to eat this week, not what I can afford.  There were logical limits of course.  (Nobody’s buying BEEF or anything—I’m not stupid!)  But it felt much different.  I knew about how much the total would be, but not the actual total.  I didn’t realize it at the time, but I remember that feeling—the feeling of being broke.  That sense of relief, even if you don't trust it just yet.

Things would become more “broke” in the next few weeks.  I went to the doctor in November, and I had health insurance.  I bought a modest gift for someone else.  I scraped together enough for a plane ticket, too.  From the outside, it looked like a normal lifestyle.

The fact is, I don’t know what “normal” is, anymore.  But that Twitter feed certainly gave me pause to open my mind to the good things that I have…and even some good things that I had during the hardest times.

Like seven fantastic cherries.






















(...)
I cried when I wrote this song
Sue me if I play too long
This brother is free
I'll be what I want to be

--Steely Dan

Sunday, February 4, 2018

The Immigration Lie


The Chain Migration "Threat"

Last week, the State of the Union interrupted sitcoms.  I find myself smack in the middle of the issues these days.  One facet of my life involves immigration.  Deeply.  People, including Ms. Raqueline.  One stateside Filipina tells my wife that I need to articulate my plans for her, as nothing is happening...and things should have happened now.

So she asked me, and I responded.  She saw how I had already thought of specific things and how we might move forward when she finally arrives. That seemed to work for her.  I can't really explain why it takes so long to myself, let alone others.

Fortunately, things change quickly around here.  We got an important piece of good news last weekend.  In about 24 hours, things turned from a challenge to my efforts to just a little bit of apprehension for her.  This is going to happen.

VisaJourney is a site for gringos like me, trying to bring the love of their life to the U.S.  It's important for a couple of reasons.  First, it's the best source of information on immigration.  Unfortunately, the rules and regulations are complex, confusing, and confounding.  The explanations found on the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services website are useless, as well.  

Second, it tells me I'm not alone.

One phenomenon of this situation is the number of those who do not connect the immigration rhetoric to my situation.  So many people think that these decisions only affect MS-13 members and ISIS recruits.  


Not the case.  Everybody has to pay for this anti-immigrant frenzy, even a 4'11"-92-pound-Filipina-Roman-Catholic-mother-of-three.  Here's a thumbnail sketch of a timeline.  We're juuuust clearing the green after 13 months of marriage.


But they can come here and stay while they're waiting, right? Theoretically, this is true. to make this happen, Congress built a workaround for just this situation--the K4 visa:

  • You file that 130 form.
  • You file a 129 form, pretending she’s your “fiance.”
  • Once the 129 is approved, you slog through the K3 visa process.
  • You attach the kids as “derivatives” to your fiance’s/wife’s visa.
  • You pay $1140/ea. to adjust their status...but you won't need to do that.
  • You never get the K3 visa.
  • You never get the K4 visa.

Here is one immigration site that said it well:
In fiscal year 2016, the U.S. Department of State issued only 102 K3 visas as compared to 133,465 immigrant (IR1/CR1) visas for the spouses of U.S. citizens.

You may apply for the K3 visa, but you should also understand the likelihood of receiving one. It’s extraordinarily low. For the purposes of planning your move, it’s often easier to rely a more predicable [sic] process – the immigrant visa.

In total, the fees, travel, and assistance come to about $3,000, and it takes 10 months to get past Step One.  VJ predicts another 182 days...after the 3 weeks or so it takes the National Visa Center to acknowledge we passed the And that's just my wife. There are three wonderful children, too.  They all cost just as much and take just as long...or longer. As one poster on VisaJourney put it to someone else:
You would need to initiate the process for your stepchildren just like you did for your husband. If your husband and you are already married and the children are under 21, they would fall under IR-2 category. I would suggest you begin the process sooner than later, as wait times for approvals and interview dates are becoming longer and longer.

Time to arrival has doubled.  USCIS is fee-funded, not taxpayer funded.  The delay...isn't financial.  USCIS is less than encouraging regarding the kids. Filipinos aren't popular immigrants in this system:



Some people are frustrated by illegal immigrants; it’s not like we make it easy to come here legally. Worse, the current talk focuses on cutting immigration--specifically "chain migration"--in half. So...FOUR years to get the kids here?  It frustrates me to think about it.  People are lying about this.  I know it for a fact; I'm living with the consequences.

So let me just put this little certificate here.  I’ll make it a point to come back here every once in a while and remember how good it felt to have some sort of progress. January 28th, 2018  was a great day.  May there be more such days to come.







Saturday, January 20, 2018

A Year in Review (Note Chart at Bottom)


(This was just too perfect to pass up! Photo from thecoli.com)

Happy Anniversary!  We will be celebrating this adminstration’s first birthday by taking a few days off…

As discussed one year ago, data should be kept and used as a tool.  Here are the same variables I used in the first iteration of this thread.*  Last year's numbers are in parentheses.  Trump's improvements are highlighted in red.  As per last year, economic data are from www.tradingeconomics.com.


Presidential Approval Rating:  40.1% (51.7%) **
U.S. News Ranking (“Best Countries”): 7 (4)
U.S. News Education Ranking (“Best Countries for Education”): 7 (3)
Inflation Rate:  2.1% (2.1%)
Unemployment Rate:  4.1% (4.7%)

Actual GDP Growth: 3.2% (2.94%)
Federal Budget Deficit: $666,000,000,000 ($587,000,000,000)
Trade Deficit:  $50,497,000,000 ($45,240,000,000)
Gasoline at Nacogdoches Wal-Mart: $2.69 ($2.039)
Gallon of Milk at Nacogdoches Kroger: $2.39 ($2.49)
Unauthorized Immigrants Living in USA: 11,009,000 (11,000,000)

Philippines:   LOVEFEST.  (Strained Relations—not even sure how to classify this one)

Syria: Known Failure (Failure: cannot find a metric at all!) +


U.S. Soldiers in Combat Zones: Pending  (13,300 & 5,524 listed as “unknown/classified” was the best I could find on this.) + 


*  I am recovering from surgery, and some of these links may mis-direct you.  Sorry!

** From realclearpolitics.com.  Of course, this number will likely drop in the coming week.

+ Please read the following paragraphs:
These last two items are very difficult to determine.  Military.com carries the Dept. of Defense message: “The long-standing official number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, or Force Management Level, has been 8,448, but Marine Lt. Gen. Frank McKenzie said for the first time that the actual number in Afghanistan is about 11,000.”  Comparison may be difficult.
On the other hand, the Buzzfeed article on Syria states, “Former military officials and experts say 2017 also showed a worrisome trend toward less transparency about how and where US troops are killed.”  I find it very difficult to believe things could get less transparent than they were a year ago.

One Indicator You Should Watch Closely 
(mediocre article here)




Chart from seekingalpha.com.

Saturday, December 16, 2017

All I Want for Christmas Is...



Before I took off for the Philippines this year, I searched online for stuff in Manila.  Specifically, I searched for anything near the BILEG Center, where Raqueline Henley lives and works most of the year.  BILEG is a building in Manila that houses visitors from the Ilocos Sur region (northern P.I.).  The center is funded by Sir Chavit Singson, the former governor of Ilocos Sur, and it sits in the San Andres neighborhood (bukid).  I was searching for “San Andres” on YouTube when I found a guy who had something to say about the bukid.
The guy’s name is Drew Binsky.  He’s a guy that travels the world and uploads YouTube videos.  He gets paid for this.  That’s a career, I guess.  I’m cool with that.
The video shows Drew working with a guy in Manila to feed a bunch of children that live on the street.  It also shows “the tunnel.”  Painful and powerful...
The guy Drew worked with is named Edwin.  Edwin Pamaniän.  I hunted him up on Facebook.  We connected, and I got to meet him the morning after I arrived in Manila.  He founded True Manila.  It’s an area, an attitude, and a charity—all in one.  Edwin lives in the neighborhood, on the main street in the area.  There’s a big open-air market across the street, and also many winding alleyways...all surrounded by dilapidated 4-story buildings and thousands of people living in this very small area.
It's a very poor neighborhood, filled with cool people and things.  Children live on the street there.  Still, it felt safe. It is amazing how he can feed 40-50 children for about $6.00!  Ms. Raqueline & I helped them a little that morning.  If you want to see it:

I'm the one with the "frosted" hair (took me YEARS to get that perfect).  I'm standing next to a BEAUTIFUL woman.  Edwin posts similar videos every day on his Facebook page.  It's a pretty amazing scene, and it happens every day!

Edwin is not your typical "slum dweller."  He’s a successful actor.  You can see his IMDb profile here.  Right now, in fact, he is portraying a character named Hunyango on AngProbinsyano.  A.P. is a nightly show on ABS-CBN, the largest television network in the Philippines.  It was interesting to see Raq’s family react to having him at the BILEG Center for her birthday party.  You could tell: he really is a celebrity.


I’m going to ask for help today—for these children.  Helping True Manila is the one Christmas present I will ask for.  
And I'm asking.

I suck at asking for help--how often do I ask?--but this setup compels me to ask.  Celebrities don’t have to live in San Andres.  That’s what Makati is supposed to be for.  Makati, with the Dean & Deluca, Trump Tower, and $15USD cocktails.  Nope, Edwin lives in a poor part…of a poor neighborhood…in a poor city…in a poor nation.  He lives his values.  It’s impressive.
The kids need the help.  Edwin deserves the support.
There’s an added bonus to Edwin’s work, too.  If you donate to his cause, you get named in a video.  In that video, you actually see your donation entering the mouths of Manila’s street children.  Life gives you few opportunities like this one.  It’s special enough...that I’m asking you for help.  Send $5, $2, whatever.  The first time you send is fee-free.  Every dime will go to the kids.  Amazing...  Help this guy.  Help these kids.  In the process, you’ll see how it helps you!

Hit this link.

Feed some street children in Manila... 

...and Merry Christmas, Y'all! 

Have yourself a merry merry Christmas
Have yourself a good time
But remember the kids who got nothin'
While you're drinkin' down your wine

--Ray Davies (The Kinks)

Friday, January 20, 2017

January 21, 2017



As a "data guy," it seems important to document the current situation--to take stock of where we are--as we move forward to consider whether major changes will be successful or not.  Here is a list of indicators that may provide insight to readers regarding the current scenario:

U.S. News Ranking (“Best Countries”): 4
U.S. News Education Ranking (“Best Countries for Education”): 3
Inflation Rate: 2.1%
Unemployment Rate:  4.7%
Actual GDP Growth: 2.94%
Federal Budget Deficit: $587,000,000,000
Trade Deficit: $45,240,000,000
Gasoline at Nacogdoches Wal-Mart: $2.039
Gallon of Milk at Nacogdoches Kroger: $2.49
Iraq: Improving (cannot find a metric that would carry)
Syria: Failure (cannot find a metric at all!)
Philippines: Strained Relations (not even sure how to classify this one)

U.S. Soldiers in Combat Zones: 13,300 (+5,524 listed as “unknown/classified”)

Economic data are from www.tradingeconomics.com.

This data is current EXACTLY as a new President is being sworn in today (January 20, 2017).

No comment here.  Documenting data is important.  Done.

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

No Young Adult Left Behind--The Situation



The think tank drumbeat is becoming the basis for the new music in higher education.
There are two key items that sustain colleges. These have been true for decades. The first is federal money; the second is the accreditation that justifies the federal money.  While accreditation is mentioned in this posting, most of this writing will focus on financial pressures.  It's a long post even with this general omission.
To start, lets consider an important group to higher education success: trustees.  The ACTA (American Council of Trustees & Alumni) has gotten involved, dancing to the drumbeat. They began assigning “grades” to colleges and universities based on their history and government course requirements. 
That’s right. College and University trustees are becoming politically active...and very specific about their activity.  The brings the drumbeat much closer to campus. Colleges are being publicly judged by groups of trustees over their history and government courses. Harvard gets a D, while Princeton and Yale each get a C.  Two-thirds of the institutions received a grade of C or lower.  The Washington Times headline read “Colleges’ lax educational standards putting students at a ‘competitive disadvantage,’ report finds.”  The ACTA then encourages trustees to take more aggressive--er, assertive-- governance roles on campuses.  Public school teachers can speak to the idea of school board members trying to become de facto school administrators.  Here’s a group that advocates for this approach in higher education. With a president sometimes only four votes from unemployment, trustees have the power to do these things.
It is situational when a think tank has some sort of idea or “strategic plan” on this. It becomes more serious when the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is developing its own world-wide test for higher education the AHELO (Assessment of Higher Education Learning Outcomes). It’s designed to “assess what students in higher education know and can do upon graduation.” Of course, it would be low-stakes and voluntary.
...of course, it would function as perfunctory.
...of course, it will dictate how classes are taught and who gets to teach them.

I know this. I saw these things happen in public schools.

It’s situational, then it’s serious, then it’s disturbing. In a previous post, I mentioned the Lumina Foundation’s “plan” to have 60% of Americans with college degrees. Who is planning to do that, you ask? Well, Texas hears the drumbeat:

Lumina gets an idea; Texas gets a policy.
Think tanks are expanding their messaging to include the “inner-city college student” as the new victim of the education system.  It’s significant to the point that Dr. Matthew Lynch is writing an opinion piece about it (and the AHELO) for Diverse. While his skepticism of such testing is real, the article has an ominous title: Is Standardized Testing for Colleges a Necessary Evil?  
In fact, there is a “best practices” movement forming for poor and minority students.  Shining examples of success with such groups is being highlighted in the press now, consistent with all those romantic, school-based Hollywood movies and think tank support pieces.  The EAB has even created its own “clearinghouse” of these best practices, jumping ahead of the DoEd’s What Works Clearinghouse, a staple of NCLB.
The Department of Education hears the drums and has a solution to this. Its title is the Gainful Employment Rule, and it involves the federal government pulling data from the Social Security Administration to determine whether college degrees are "worth it" for students, based on their earnings after college. 
In the opening Fact Sheet, gainful employment seems to depend on attending a public institution and studying the correct field. In January (unless stopped by the new administration), the Department of Education will release its calculated "debt-to-earnings metrics" and hold colleges accountable for these. With the Hechinger Report holding that these data indicate 42% of the programs fail, the new accountability system could cause massive pain for institutions.
To further leverage federal purse power, a joint agency guidance letter (draft)—from the Departments of Education, Housing & Urban Development, Agriculture, Treasury, Health & Human Services, and Labor—has come to the attention of higher education. This letter delineates the requirements of poor student academic programs in terms of the public benefits they need to survive their college years. Snippets of policy wording include " career-oriented program" and “eligible career pathway.”

It seems that the poor kids need to focus more on careers. Psychology, and education (!), and fine arts are majors only for kids rich enough to pay. Meanwhile, this author has (rhetorical) questions regarding the commitment to poor students:
More and more corporate interests are moving to the drumbeat, and their impact is similar to that of think tanks. The hold to the belief that “business practices” would benefit higher education, and they leverage their funding to make institutions do all sorts of tricks.  It’s referred to as privatization. This privatization of higher education is documented in a book titled, The Great Mistake: How We Wrecked Public Universities and How We Can Fix Them by Christopher Newfield. In a discussion of the book, Dr. Newfield may sum the approach to this best:
 We just started prioritizing private revenue streams, and energy and brains and additional positions were created in order to go after that other stuff. The Regents were pitched fundraising statistics and contracts and grants, gross statistics—always with the gross numbers, never with net. Undergraduates and academic graduates (sic) students became more of an afterthought at the senior management level. They were kind of the revenue source, in terms of tuition and general funds per capita, but then, after that, they were not at the center of policy. We really lost our focus.
Politicians, looking for the “bang from their bucks,” collectively slashed state funding to higher education by 18% between 2007 and 2014.  The Hechinger Report noted that, during this same period, administration personnel rose by 15%.  While offices in research, assessment, effectiveness, and planning are burgeoning, the number of faculty is dropping. Fully half of the American faculty work without tenure, most teaching on a per-class payment system. Ithaca College is facing a public relations nightmare over the low wages they pay to these instructors.
Apparently, your tax dollars are being wasted by…by…OK, we’ll start with for-profit colleges—that need to be held “accountable.”  Did you catch that word?  Yep.  Right there.  We need some accountability from these colleges and universities.  After all, these are our tax dollars. It led President Obama to speak of “bang for the buck” when discussing college costs.
The federal government really doesn’t have to “leverage” anything in higher education. Students pay the tuition, and most need some sort of federal help to make those payments. Once the Department of Education cuts off loans and grants, colleges whither. This is true of for-profit colleges; it holds true for almost any higher education institution.
The federal government has cracked down on for-profit schools. Those that receive federal student loan monies and don’t meet targets of employment, wages, and loan repayment get hit. Two larger examples of this, Corinthians Colleges and ITT Technical Institute, have closed in the last six months.
It’s sooooo easy!  All you have to do is cut federal funding (student loans, Pell grants, research funding) and the colleges will just—go away.  One quick way to do that is by killing off the accrediting body that lends legitimacy (and funding) to the fly-by-night, for-profit colleges that are your first target.  Recently, the DoEd has cut off recognition to the ACIS, the accrediting body of most for-profit institutions. ACIS has appealed, and a new administration has brought renewed optimism in the for-profit ranks.
But with that move, many of the for-profit schools suddenly lack legitimacy. Thus, there is no direct route to getting the federal money necessary to keep going.
BOOM!  You’ve killed off hundreds of schools.

Now it’s up to some other accreditor to pick them up.  They won’t.  After all, their own status is in jeopardy if they do accept these schools. Some of these make sense.  Corinthian and ITT were problematic. Career Point College probably needed to go, as well.  On the other hand, the grand-daddy of for-profit learning--The University of Phoenix--has programs that fail to meet the Gainful Employment Standard. But it begs the question as to where this will stop. Is every for-profit college bad? Here's a study indicating otherwise.  How long will the DoEd keep regional accrediting bodies around…and why?
The same metrics that are being used to kill for-profit institutions are being used to make others uncomfortable. We are learning that for-profit colleges are not the only institutions having trouble meeting this new set of standards.  When you consider that 40% of U.S. institutions have 1000 or fewer students, these metrics will be crucial for survival for half of today’s institutions.  Three liberal arts institutions have closed this past spring, joining for-profit entities.  Self-appointed expert (SAE) Jeff Selingo urges small colleges to merge and calls for fewer, larger institutions like Canada.  After all, they'll probably score higher on that new international "just for fun" AHELO test I mentioned earlier.



This is an initial analysis.  My cause for concern is based on the following ideas:

  • The same types of players are involved--often the same exact players!
  • Poor and minority students are being used as examples for liberals, while tax stewardship is being used to justify this movement to conservatives.
  • Many of the same structures are being put into place by federal and state governments.
  • The federal government is leveraging financial resources to force states and institutions to standardize practices.
  • Schools are closing based on all of these forces.
  • There is direct pressure on institutions to narrow their course offerings and degree programs (K-12 calls this curriculum).


No Child Left Behind failed.  The beat was catchy, but it didn't have much else.  This same approach, if applied to higher education, will fail.  The damage to public schools is ongoing.  However, the potential damage to higher education could be structural damage that lessens the effect of higher education in America--permanently.  Eventually, there's no drum left to beat!
This is bad...